Side by side#
| Self-publishing | Publishing deal | |
|---|---|---|
| Who funds development | You (savings, investors, revenue-based finance) | Publisher, against milestones |
| Revenue you keep | 100% of net receipts | A share: typically 50–70% after recoup, sometimes a share during |
| If the game underperforms | You absorb the loss | Publisher absorbs most of it |
| Marketing, PR, festivals | You run or hire it | Publisher runs it, ideally with a written commitment |
| QA, localisation, ratings, ports | You buy each service | Usually included |
| Platform relationships | You build them | Publisher's existing ones |
| Creative control | Full | Studio-led in good deals; approvals on milestones |
| IP | Yours | Yours in most modern deals; check the contract |
| Admin load | High: store ops, payments, tax, support | Mostly handled |
The break-even formula#
Compare the studio's take under a deal with self-publishing the same budget . With a during-recoup share and a post-recoup share , the deal beats self-publishing for all net receipts up to
and self-publishing wins above it. So the question isn't "which is better" in general; it's "how likely is my game to earn more than ?" For a deal with nothing during recoup, : any game that breaks even would have done better alone. For Ammighty's standard 15% / 70-30, . The derivation and charts are in the recoup waterfall.
Under uncertainty#
Nobody knows in advance, so we drew 400,000 outcomes from our launch model at 150,000 launch wishlists and a $500k budget:
| Expected take | 10th percentile | Median | P(loss) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Self-publish | $387k | $-321k | $82k | 43% |
| Deal: 15% during recoup, 70/30 after | $397k | $27k | $133k | 0% |
| Deal: straight recoup, 60/40 after | $288k | $0 | $49k | 0% |
The share deal matches self-publishing's expected value (it would even with a publisher that added less revenue) while removing the loss scenarios. A straight-recoup deal needs the publisher to raise revenue by about 21% to match. That's possible, but it's a claim the publisher should back with a written marketing commitment.
When self-publishing is the better call#
- You can fund it without betting the studio. If a total loss would hurt but not end you, the downside protection is worth less.
- You already have the audience. A creator-led studio with a large community gets less marketing uplift from a publisher.
- The game is small and PC-only. Store ops for one platform are manageable; ports and ratings are where publishers add most.
- Your genre has predictable sales. Low variance makes risk transfer worth less, and some niche genres sell very consistently to a known base.
When a publisher is the better call#
- The budget is large relative to your reserves. The bigger is compared with what you could lose, the more the downside protection is worth.
- You need services you can't buy cheaply: console certification, localisation, ratings in many territories, platform featuring.
- Outcomes are highly uncertain, which describes most new genres, including AI-native games, where comparables are thin.
- Your game has runtime costs. AI-native games pay inference per player. A publisher that covers it outside recoup (Ammighty does for 24 months) is taking on a cost self-publishers carry alone.
Hybrids#
It isn't binary. Common middle paths: self-publish on PC and license console and mobile to a publisher; take a marketing-only deal with a smaller share; or sign a platform-scoped deal where the publisher handles one region. Each changes , and , so plug them into the same formula. Our term sheet checklist lists the clauses to check whichever path you choose.
Frequently asked questions#
Is it better to self-publish or use a publisher?
It depends on how likely your game is to earn more than the break-even revenue R* = B(1 + a/(1−s)), and how much a loss would hurt. Publishers are worth more when budgets are large relative to reserves and outcomes are uncertain.
What percentage do game publishers take?
Commonly 30–50% of net receipts after recoup, and most or all receipts before recoup. Better deals give the studio a share from the first sale.
Can I self-publish on PC and use a publisher for consoles?
Yes. Platform-scoped deals are common, and they let you keep PC revenue while buying console expertise.